The Futurist

José Cordeiro, Director, Venezuela, The Millennium Project

From Biological Evolution to Technological Evolution

Since the Big Bang, the universe has been in constant evolution and continuous transformation. First there were physical interactions, then chemical processes, later biological evolution, and finally technological evolution has become possible. Life on Earth began as simple bacteria, but as we begin to ride the wave into human redesign, the destination is still largely unknown and the opportunities are almost limitless.

Biological evolution continues, but it is too slow to achieve the goals now possible thanks to technological evolution. Natural selection with trial and error can now be substituted by technical selection with engineering design. The human's supremacy as the only advanced sentient life form on the planet will soon come to an end, supplemented by a number of posthuman incarnations, including enhanced humans, transhumans, robots and cyborgs.

Humans are not at the end of evolution, just the beginning of a better, conscious and technological evolution. The human body is a good beginning, but we can certainly improve it, upgrade it, and transcend it. Now it's possible to control biological evolution, direct it and go beyond it. In fact, why stop evolution with carbon-based life forms? Why not move into silicon-based organisms, among other possibilities? They might be more suited for other environments, like traveling in outer space.

From a biological viewpoint, commercial genome sequencing began in 2009 with costs of 10,000 euro per person, and the prices are expected to fall radically to 1,000 euro in 2011 and just 100 euro before 2015. Human genome sequencing will enable the development of designer babies and facilitate preventive and predictive medicine.

From a computational viewpoint, many scientists expect computers to reach human-intelligence level in the 2020s, thanks to the accelerated development of artificial intelligence. These projections are based on Moore's Law that foresees the doubling of computer power every 18 months. In about a decade there will be computers that have more transistors than our brains have neurons. The merge of humans and machines has just begun with all of our smart telephones, personal computers and other electronic devices. More biologically and computationally enhanced humans are just a few years away.

American scientist Marvin Minsky, one of the fathers of artificial intelligence at MIT, wrote a prominent article, "Will Robots Inherit the Earth?" in Scientific American in 1994, where he concludes, "Yes, but they will be our children. We owe our minds to the deaths and lives of all the creatures that were ever engaged in the struggle called Evolution. Our job is to see that all this work shall not end up in meaningless waste."

With ethics and wisdom, humans will keep on evolving, as science fiction writer David Zindell suggested:

"What is a human being, then?"

"A seed."

"A ...seed?"

"An acorn that is unafraid to destroy itself in growing into a tree."


Futurist José Cordeiro is an independent consultant, writer, researcher and one of the founders of the World Future Society.  Educated in Europe and North America, he has lectured as an invited Professor at several major institutions including Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and London Business School (LBS). Thanks to his extensive work in technological foresight, futures studies, globalization, economic integration, energy, education and monetary policy, Mr. Cordeiro has authored and co-authored several books.

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