José Cordeiro, Director, The Millennium Project
Electricity first came into wider use in the late 19th century, and since then the consumption of energy has been growing at a much faster rate than many other economic variables. Today, at the beginning of the 21st century, almost 90 percent of all energy in the world is still produced from three non-renewable fossil fuels: coal, oil and gas. There are attempts to power the economy with alternative and renewable sources of energy, ranging from earlier methods such as dam hydroelectricity to newer technologies like geothermal, tidal, wind and solar power. However, all these sources combined still produce less than 10% of the total energy consumed today.
With expanding populations and ever-increasing consumption, is there enough energy in the world to fuel the demands of civilization in the 21st century and beyond? The answer is an emphatic yes, because some energy sources are just beginning to be exploited. The most promising candidate is solar energy, which has a potential far greater than hydroelectric, nuclear, geothermal, tidal, wind and solar energy and all fossil fuels combined.
Daily, the sun bathes the earth with enough energy to power 10,000 human civilizations at our current rate of consumption. In other words, our planet receives as much solar energy every hour as is consumed in a full year. This illustrates solar energy's colossal capacity. Furthermore, solar energy is a clean and renewable resource distributed around the planet. This makes it infinite within present human parameters.
Why, then, aren't we using more solar energy? The commercial production of solar energy has only been around for a couple of decades and many technical obstacles remain. Nevertheless, the technology is developing fast. If current growth trends continue, solar energy may account for almost half of all energy consumption in 2030.
Solar technologies are advancing quickly, and not just in the form of solar panels on surface installations. Japan and the state of California have plans to launch solar satellites to orbit the Earth within the next 20 years. These satellites will beam solar energy down through the atmosphere as wireless power, in a way that is not unlike how mobile telecommunications work today.
Since the beginning of life on earth over three billion years ago, nearly all plants as well as many bacteria have relied on solar energy for their survival and growth. The time has come for humans to make use of solar energy directly. If all goes according to plan, cities like Tokyo and San Francisco will be receiving energy from solar satellites by the year 2030. Such space-based solar power will join the extensive network of solar panels that will be in use around the world, from Algeria to Australia, and from Yemen to Zimbabwe, connecting the entire planet through an intelligent electrical grid.
Futurist José Cordeiro is an independent consultant, writer, researcher and one of the founders of the World Future Society. Educated in Europe and North America, he has lectured as an invited Professor at several major institutions including Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and London Business School (LBS). Thanks to his extensive work in technological foresight, futures studies, globalization, economic integration, energy, education and monetary policy, Mr. Cordeiro has authored and co-authored several books.